Café carbono neutro : análises econômicas prospectivas para a lavoura

Resumo Ingles

This dissertation investigates, from an applied environmental economics perspective, the economic feasibility, environmental effectiveness, and distributive impacts of regulated and voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation instruments in Brazilian coffee production. Grounded on the premise that the transition toward low-emission agriculture depends not only on technical mitigation potential but also on the institutional architecture of economic incentives, the study examines under which conditions carbon pricing mechanisms and environmental labeling instruments can induce economically rational behavior at the producer level while achieving aggregate environmental effectiveness in the coffee sector. The methodological strategy integrates multiple analytical levels. First, the technological environment of agricultural mitigation is assessed through patent analysis, trademark data, and bibliometric evidence, identifying patterns of innovation related to emissions reduction. Second, a microeconomic model of producer decision-making is developed to evaluate the potential insertion of coffee farming into a regulated carbon market. The model estimates the break-even price, minimum viable scale, and profit-maximizing level of carbon credit supply, incorporating fixed certification costs, transaction costs, and price uncertainty. Stochastic price simulations and cost projections are employed to assess alternative feasibility scenarios. The dissertation also examines the regional distributive effects of carbon market participation using municipal-level data. The analysis identifies potential asymmetries associated with minimum scale requirements and high fixed costs, which may favor larger producers and regions with greater structural advantages. In parallel, voluntary environmental labeling instruments are evaluated by estimating the price premium associated with product differentiation. Econometric techniques, including Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD), are applied to municipal data to measure revenue impacts linked to sustainable certification. The results indicate that, under a regulated carbon market, economic viability is highly sensitive to carbon credit prices and the dilution of fixed certification costs, creating potential entry barriers and regional inequalities. In contrast, voluntary labeling instruments exhibit lower dependence on minimum physical scale, potentially expanding participation among smaller producers, although they remain subject to price premium volatility and institutional credibility constraints. The study concludes that the climate effectiveness of Brazilian coffee production is contingent upon the alignment between economic incentives, production structure, and regulatory design. Poorly calibrated instruments may exacerbate regional disparities, whereas well-designed institutional arrangements can transform climate mitigation into an opportunity for value addition and territorial development. By integrating microeconomic modeling, distributive analysis, and prospective policy evaluation, this dissertation contributes to the debate on ecological transition and the design of economic instruments in rural development contexts.